Lack of utility of measuring serum bilirubin concentration in distinguishing perforation status of pediatric appendicitis.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric appendicitis is a common, potentially serious condition. Determining perforation status is crucial to planning effective management. PURPOSE: Determine the efficacy of serum total bilirubin concentration [STBC] in distinguishing perforation status in children with appendicitis. METHODS: Retrospective review of 257 cases of appendicitis who received abdominal CT scan and measurement of STBC. RESULTS: There were 109 with perforation vs 148 without perforation. Although elevated STBC was significantly more common in those with [36%] vs without perforation [22%], the mean difference in elevated values between groups [0.1mg/dL] was clinically insignificant. Higher degrees of hyperbilirubinemia [>2mg/dL] were rarely encountered [5%]. Predictive values for elevated STBC in distinguishing perforation outcome were imprecise [sensitivity 38.5%, specificity 78.4%, PPV 56.8%, NPV 63.4%]. ROC curve analysis of multiple clinical and other laboratory factors for predicting perforation status was unenhanced by adding the STBC variable. Specific analysis of those with perforated appendicitis and percutaneously-drained intra-abdominal abscess which was culture-positive for Escherichia coli showed an identical rate of STBC elevation compared to all with perforation. CONCLUSIONS: The routine measurement of STBC does not accurately distinguish perforation status in children with appendicitis, nor discern infecting organism in those with perforation and intra-abdominal abscess.

Zika virus: Endemic and epidemic ranges of Aedes mosquito transmission.

As evidence linking Zika virus with serious health complications strengthens, public health officials and clinicians worldwide need to know which locations are likely to be at risk for autochthonous Zika infections. We created risk maps for epidemic and endemic Aedes-borne Zika virus infections globally using a predictive analysis method that draws on temperature, precipitation, elevation, land cover, and population density variables to identify locations suitable for mosquito activity seasonally or year-round. Aedes mosquitoes capable of transmitting Zika and other viruses are likely to live year-round across many tropical areas in the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Our map provides an enhanced global projection of where vector control initiatives may be most valuable for reducing the risk of Zika virus and other Aedes-borne infections.

Risk analysis for dengue suitability in Africa using the ArcGIS predictive analysis tools (PA tools).

BACKGROUND: Risk maps identifying suitable locations for infection transmission are important for public health planning. Data on dengue infection rates are not readily available in most places where the disease is known to occur. METHODS: A newly available add-in to Esri's ArcGIS software package, the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Toolset (PA Tools), was used to identify locations within Africa with environmental characteristics likely to be suitable for transmission of dengue virus. RESULTS: A more accurate, robust, and localized (1 km × 1 km) dengue risk map for Africa was created based on bioclimatic layers, elevation data, high-resolution population data, and other environmental factors that a search of the peer-reviewed literature showed to be associated with dengue risk. Variables related to temperature, precipitation, elevation, and population density were identified as good predictors of dengue suitability. Areas of high dengue suitability occur primarily within West Africa and parts of Central Africa and East Africa, but even in these regions the suitability is not homogenous. CONCLUSION: This risk mapping technique for an infection transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes draws on entomological, epidemiological, and geographic data. The method could be applied to other infectious diseases (such as Zika) in order to provide new insights for public health officials and others making decisions about where to increase disease surveillance activities and implement infection prevention and control efforts. The ability to map threats to human and animal health is important for tracking vectorborne and other emerging infectious diseases and modeling the likely impacts of climate change.

Mosquito habitat and dengue risk potential in Kenya: alternative methods to traditional risk mapping techniques.

Outbreaks, epidemics and endemic conditions make dengue a disease that has emerged as a major threat in tropical and sub-tropical countries over the past 30 years. Dengue fever creates a growing burden for public health systems and has the potential to affect over 40% of the world population. The problem being investigated is to identify the highest and lowest areas of dengue risk. This paper presents "Similarity Search", a geospatial analysis aimed at identifying these locations within Kenya. Similarity Search develops a risk map by combining environmental susceptibility analysis and geographical information systems, and then compares areas with dengue prevalence to all other locations. Kenya has had outbreaks of dengue during the past 3 years, and we identified areas with the highest susceptibility to dengue infection using bioclimatic variables, elevation and mosquito habitat as input to the model. Comparison of the modelled risk map with the reported dengue epidemic cases obtained from the open source reporting ProMED and Government news reports from 1982-2013 confirmed the high-risk locations that were used as the Similarity Search presence cells. Developing the risk model based upon the bioclimatic variables, elevation and mosquito habitat increased the efficiency and effectiveness of the dengue fever risk mapping process.

Assessing the methods needed for improved dengue mapping: a SWOT analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral infection, is a growing threat to human health in tropical and subtropical areas worldwide. There is a demand from public officials for maps that capture the current distribution of dengue and maps that analyze risk factors to predict the future burden of disease. METHODS: To identify relevant articles, we searched Google Scholar, PubMed, BioMed Central, and WHOLIS (World Health Organization Library Database) for published articles with a specific set of dengue criteria between January 2002 and July 2013. RESULTS: After evaluating the currently available dengue models, we identified four key barriers to the creation of high-quality dengue maps: (1) data limitations related to the expense of diagnosing and reporting dengue cases in places where health information systems are underdeveloped; (2) issues related to the use of socioeconomic proxies in places with limited dengue incidence data; (3) mosquito ranges which may be changing as a result of climate changes; and (4) the challenges of mapping dengue events at a variety of scales. CONCLUSION: An ideal dengue map will present endemic and epidemic dengue information from both rural and urban areas. Overcoming the current barriers requires expanded collaboration and data sharing by geographers, epidemiologists, and entomologists. Enhanced mapping techniques would allow for improved visualizations of dengue rates and risks.

Maternal-child overweight/obesity and undernutrition in Kenya: a geographic analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the study was to examine geographic relationships of nutritional status (BMI), including underweight, overweight and obesity, among Kenyan mothers and children. DESIGN: Spatial relationships were examined concerning BMI of the mothers and BMI-for-age percentiles of their children. These included spatial statistical measures of the clustering of segments of the population, in addition to inspection of co-location of significant clusters. SETTING: Rural and urban areas of Kenya, including the cities of Nairobi and Mombasa, and the Kisumu region. SUBJECTS: Mother-child pairs from Demographic and Health Survey data including 1541 observations in 2003 and 1592 observations in 2009. These mother-child pairs were organized into 399 locational clusters. RESULTS: There is extremely strong evidence that high BMI values exhibit strong spatial clustering. There were co-locations of overweight mothers and overweight children only in the Nairobi region, while both underweight mothers and children tended to cluster in rural areas. In Mombasa clusters of overweight mothers were associated with normal-weight children, while in the Kisumu region clusters of overweight children were associated with normal-weight mothers. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show there is geographic variability as well as some defined patterns concerning the distribution of malnutrition among mothers and children in Kenya, and suggest the need for further geographic analyses concerning the potential factors which influence nutritional status in this population. In addition, the methods used in this research may be easily applied to other Demographic and Health Survey data in order to begin to understand the geographic determinants of health in low-income countries.